Speculative decoding (SD) accelerates autoregressive inference by leveraging the memory bound nature of decoding, verifying multiple draft tokens in a single forward pass. For mixture-of-experts (MoE) models, prior work predicts a concave speedup-batch size relationship, with gains peaking at intermediate batch sizes due to expert saturation. We evaluate this across 10 sparse MoE models (30B--1T parameters, 8--512 experts) and find recent fine-grained models break this trend, showing higher speedup at low batch size. We find verification cost is governed not only by activated-expert bytes, but also by temporal overlap across draft tokens and GPU execution dynamics. At low batch size, MoE layers in fine-grained models account for a much smaller share of runtime than of weights; on H100, kernel profiling attributes this mainly to higher bandwidth utilization of MoE kernels relative to attention, with L2 absorbing repeated reads of co-routed experts. Across draft tokens, routing overlap further reduces the unique experts activated during verification relative to independence assumptions. We model this effect using a maximum-entropy Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) framework that predicts unique expert counts from routing-overlap statistics with less than 4\% error, and substantially narrows the gap to real-model curves and captures the qualitative low-batch trend from synthetic routing.