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Transfer Learning with Conformalized Quantile Regression for Solar PV Forecasting Under Load-Shedding-Driven Data Scarcity

arXiv机器学习 2026-09-23 02:49 5 阅读 查看原文

Solar photovoltaic (PV) forecasting in regions affected by load shedding is challenging because reliable historical observations are scarce.

This study proposes a transfer learning framework combined with Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) to improve PV power forecasting and provide reliable uncertainty estimates under severe data scarcity.

A source-domain PV dataset from Alice Springs, Australia, is used to pretrain a temporal forecasting model, which is then adapted to simulated Bangladesh PV data representing different levels of historical availability.

Experimental results show that transfer learning reduces RMSE by up to 23.7% when only one month of target-domain data is available and by 13.7% with three months of data.

The proposed Transfer Learning plus CQR framework achieves 94.3% empirical coverage with three months of target data while producing prediction intervals that are 14% narrower than those obtained without transfer learning.

These results demonstrate that combining transfer learning with conformal uncertainty quantification can improve both point forecasting accuracy and uncertainty reliability when target-domain PV data are severely limited.