Title:Patient-Reported Survey Data Improve Prediction of Opioid Use Disorder

Abstract:Electronic health records (EHRs) may incompletely capture patient-reported factors associated with opioid use disorder (OUD). We evaluated whether survey data improve prediction of a first recorded OUD diagnosis among 267,747 All of Us participants with documented opioid exposure, including 15,287 OUD cases. We compared EHR-only and EHR+survey models across 6-, 12-, and 24-month look-back windows using logistic regression, random forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, multilayer perceptron, LSTM, GRU, and Transformer. Survey augmentation improved PR-AUC across all 24 model-window combinations by 0.0087-0.0505; the best 24-month LightGBM model improved from 0.6219 to 0.6603. Survey coverage increased with longer windows and differed by OUD status (24 months: 21.7% OUD-positive vs. 60.7% OUD-negative). Permutation analysis ranked survey features as the second most important information domain at 24 months in both evaluated models. Patient-reported data provide complementary predictive signals beyond structured EHRs while highlighting the importance of survey availability.