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From Rainfall to Road-Network Functionality: Transferable Graph Forecasting for Flood-Disrupted Transportation Networks

arXiv机器学习 2026-10-10 14:11 6 阅读 查看原文

Extreme rainfall can rapidly degrade road-network functionality (RNF), disrupting emergency mobility, accessibility, evacuation, logistics, and infrastructure restoration.

Existing flood-transportation impact models are often difficult to deploy across regions because they rely on local calibration, intensive simulation workflows or target-region retraining.

This study proposes G-R2R, a transferable spatiotemporal graph-learning framework that reframes rainfall-induced road-network disruption as a region-conditioned, topology-flexible graph forecasting problem for unseen transportation networks.

The framework integrates ego-centered subgraph sampling, terrain-conditioned graph representation, region-conditioned dual-level static encoding, and dynamic rainfall-network feature learning.

Static geographic and infrastructure attributes are fused with rainfall forcing and recent RNF states to forecast node-level RNF across heterogeneous road networks.

G-R2R is evaluated using simulation-derived RNF sequences from ten flood-prone regions in Wenzhou, China, under unseen-region testing protocols.

It outperforms representative forecasting baselines, achieving a stabilized MAPE of 2.33% and $R^2$ of 0.855 under the fixed unseen-region benchmark.

Leave-one-area-out evaluation yields stabilized MAPE values of 2.30%-3.54%.

Ablation analysis supports the contributions of the terrain-conditioned graph representation and dual-level static encoding.

A historical-event replay of Typhoon Fitow further shows that G-R2R reproduces principal temporal trajectories and node-level spatial patterns of the simulation-derived RNF reference under observed rainfall forcing without target-region retraining.

These results support rapid and transferable node-level RNF forecasting across the regional road-network domains represented in this study.