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SIRNET: Causal Adaptation of Pretrained Embeddings for Semiparametric Treatment-Effect Estimation Under Surrogacy

arXiv机器学习 2026-09-29 12:56 3 阅读 查看原文

Modern experiments increasingly produce rich post-treatment objects---such as text, images, and video---that may provide early surrogate signals for outcomes that are delayed, expensive, or observed only for a subset of participants.

A pretrained encoder can turn such an object into a strong generic embedding, but the embedding is not trained for the estimation tasks required by a causal estimator and may emphasize information irrelevant to the causal target.

We propose SIRNET, a Surrogate-Informed Representation adaptation framework for neural-NETwork-based causal estimation in the presence of unstructured post-treatment surrogates.

Starting from pretrained surrogate embeddings, SIRNET learns a shared adapter jointly for outcome prediction, treatment propensity, and arm-specific surrogate marginalization, beyond the generic pretraining objective.

The resulting covariate and surrogate representations provide a common interface for these nuisance tasks.

The final treatment-effect estimate and confidence interval are obtained from cross-fitted orthogonal scores that attain the semiparametric efficiency bound under the stated nuisance-rate conditions.

We also validate SIRNET's performance in synthetic and semisynthetic experiments, as well as the Anti-Amyloid in Asymptomatic Alzheimer's Disease (A4) trial, using frozen pretrained brain-MRI embeddings as surrogates for a long-term outcome.