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Signal-Routed Temperature Scaling: Low-Capacity Risk-Conditioned Calibration for Small Validation Budgets

arXiv机器学习 2026-09-30 12:12 7 阅读 查看原文

When a classifier is recalibrated from only a few thousand held-out examples, the capacity of the calibration map becomes a statistical design choice rather than a purely architectural one:

a scalar map can underfit structured residual miscalibration, while a highly adaptive map can be hard to estimate reliably from so small a split.

We disentangle the calibration objective from adaptive capacity and propose signal-routed temperature scaling (SRTS-BCE), a 10-parameter, argmax-preserving calibrator that cross-fits a correctness-risk score over six logit statistics and fits one top-label-BCE temperature per $K=3$ risk groups, recovering TvA-TS as its $K=1$ limit.

On fine-tuned CIFAR-100 / ViT-B/16, SRTS-BCE reduces $\mathrm{ECE}_{15}$ from 1.65 (scalar TvA-TS) to 0.96, matching the higher-capacity SMART+BCE head (0.95) at the full calibration budget.

The two regimes separate as the budget shrinks: at $n=250$ SRTS-BCE beats SMART+BCE on all three CIFAR-100 backbones (the seed-to-draw hierarchical interval excludes zero), whereas the flagship comparison against the scalar remains directional.

A protocol-frozen Tiny-ImageNet follow-up reproduces the small-budget separation and exhibits a budget-dependent ranking reversal on Swin-T;

matched routing and map controls show that the effect is tied neither to the learned router nor to discrete grouping.

Together the results identify post-hoc calibrator capacity as a finite-sample design choice whose preferred level shifts with the amount of available calibration data.