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Sequential Confidence Sets for Coverage-Constrained Conformal Model Selection

arXiv机器学习 2026-09-22 16:09 5 阅读 查看原文

Modern conformal forecasting systems often maintain several adaptive pipelines that differ in base forecasters, conformity scores, calibration windows, and update rules.

Comparing them is difficult because coverage is a hard constraint, whereas efficiency should be optimized only among feasible pipelines.

We formulate this problem as sequential inference for a stochastic constrained argmin.

At each time, the target is the set of minimum-cost pipelines satisfying multiple prefix-average conditional miscoverage constraints.

We introduce Coverage-Constrained Sequential Model Confidence Sets (CC-SMCS), which separate certifiably feasible, possibly feasible, and possibly constrained-optimal pipelines.

Using simultaneous martingale confidence sequences, CC-SMCS projects a rectangular confidence region onto the constrained argmin and admits an exact closed-form rule.

With probability at least $1-δ$, it contains every constrained-optimal pipeline simultaneously over all times.

This finite-sample guarantee requires no stationarity or mixing assumptions and remains valid under data-dependent stopping.

We also establish an impossibility result for safe certification at the coverage boundary and extend the construction to delayed multi-horizon feedback and outcome-dependent efficiency objectives.