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Uncovering Residential PV-EV Co-Adoption from Smart-Meter Data: Load Archetypes and Detection for Demand-Side Planning

arXiv机器学习 2026-09-23 20:45 6 阅读 查看原文

The increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems is reshaping residential electricity demand and creating new challenges for demand-side management (DSM), tariff design, and low-voltage network planning.

Much of the existing literature examines EV charging or PV generation in isolation, leaving the behavioral dynamics of household co-adoption less understood.

Methodology

We develop an integrated, two-part workflow to analyze advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data.

A discovery component applies dynamic time warping (DTW) k-means with DTW barycenter averaging to cluster daily import or export profiles into interpretable behavioral archetypes, while a predictive component trains a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) model on 21-day windows and benchmarks it against tabular baselines for PV/EV activity detection.

The EV activity labels are inferred from charging-like load signatures because charger measurements are unavailable.

Results

Using half-hourly AusNet residential data from Victoria, Australia, the clustering uncovers distinct patterns across PV-only, EV-only, co-adoption, and neither cohorts; for co-adopters, a midday-centered weekday export archetype accounts for approximately 50% of days.

At validation-tuned thresholds, both BiLSTM and XGBoost achieve strong discrimination.

BiLSTM obtains 0.991 for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), 0.906 for macro-F1, and the highest recall on the most difficult class (0.836 for EV-only recall).

Tree-based baselines remain competitive.

Performance remains stable across plausible labeling rules (macro-F1: 0.894--0.914) and strictly forward temporal splits (macro-F1: 0.894--0.906).