How Far Can Sub-3B Open Language Models Go in Zero-Shot Essay Scoring on an 8 GB Consumer GPU?

Zero-shot essay scoring with large language models is usually demonstrated with proprietary API models, yet the settings where automated scoring is most needed, such as public schools grading thousands of essays under strict privacy rules, are often those where sending student writing to a third-party API is unacceptable. We ask how much capability survives when the model must be a sub-3B open model running fully locally in FP16, with a controlled study of four instruction-tuned models from two families (Qwen2.5 at 0.5B/1.5B/3B, SmolLM2 at 1.7B) on all eight ASAP-AES prompts on a single 8 GB consumer GPU, with bootstrap confidence intervals, Holm-corrected paired tests, and deployment-realistic variants of the key design choices. Three findings emerge. (i) Rubric-decomposed prompting beats holistic prompting for every model under batch min-max aggregation (though Qwen2.5-3B drops significantly on one prompt), and under mean aggregation two unrelated families land within 0.01 at the 1.5-1.7B scale. (ii) Mapping trait scores into the prompt range is fragile to grader calibration: one model compresses traits into a narrow low band (2-4 on 0-10) and naive mean aggregation collapses, while the min-max normalization of Multi-Trait Specialization repairs it (macro QWK 0.204 to 0.388) and stays within 0.03 when its statistics are frozen on 30 held-out essays. (iii) Signed error falls with essay length in eleven of twelve configurations, opposite to the verbosity bias reported for large LLM judges; normalized rubric decomposition largely flattens this slope for well-calibrated models. We anchor results honestly: the best local configuration (0.388) remains far below both the human inter-rater ceiling (0.769) and a length-only baseline (0.523), so we position sub-3B local models strictly for formative, human-supervised feedback.